Productivity Research
AI coding productivity results are mixed.
Key Findings
Section titled “Key Findings”- METR (2025, updated 2026): Experienced developers were about 19% slower in the tested setup, despite perceiving themselves as faster.
- DORA 2025: AI tends to amplify existing team strengths and weaknesses rather than fix process issues on its own.
- Practical takeaway: Gains are strongest when teams have tight feedback loops, clear ownership, and reliable verification.
Why Results Conflict
Section titled “Why Results Conflict”- Different studies measure different tasks (greenfield vs maintenance)
- Tool configuration and model selection vary widely
- Team maturity changes outcomes as much as model quality
How to Apply This
Section titled “How to Apply This”- Run a scoped pilot on your own codebase
- Measure PR cycle time, review time, and rework rate
- Track quality outcomes, not just code volume
Sources
Section titled “Sources”- METR update: https://metr.org/blog/2026-02-24-uplift-update/
- DORA 2025 report: https://dora.dev/research/2025/dora-report/